Three Lessons to Better Protect America

As surprising and perhaps odd as it may be, Bible verse John 8-32 is the motto of the CIA etched in the marble wall of the Agency’s entry foyer.

In that spirit, this Spy’s Guide to American History has tried to look honestly at the 2 major intelligence successes and the 3 major intelligence failures of my lifetime. My objectives have been (1) to seek truth from facts and (2) to learn some lessons from what went right and what went disastrously wrong. Such lessons can be profoundly important in saving American blood and fortune.

In each case, I have brutally assessed the performance of our nation’s intelligence collectors, intelligence analysts, and our intelligence leadership. I am a retired CIA ops guy. So, I arrogantly expected to find that the collectors were always key, the analysts were helpful, and the leadership figureheads. I was wrong.

In the two great intelligence successes - the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Demise of the Soviet Union - the leadership of John McCone and of Bill Casey was the absolute key to success. To be sure, collectors played a critical support role in those successes. The analysts played an important support role in the Demise of the Soviet Union but were dead wrong in the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Two of the three great intelligence failures - the Kennedy Assassination and the Second Iraq War - were unforced errors.

• Lee Harvey Oswald was a psychologically unstable kid who was determined to make some mark on history and unfortunately did. That the CIA and other elements of the US government allowed Oswald to succeed is the most embarrassing intelligence failure of my lifetime, made worse by the Warren Commission attempt to cover up that failure. No wonder that conspiracy theories still abound.

• As for Iraq WMD, the collectors and the analysts failed miserably. That said, at the crucial briefing in the Oval Office, when President Bush asked, “Is this the best we’ve got,” George Tenet simply should have admitted what he knew to be true, “Yes, Sir, it is.”

In the third great intelligence failure - 9/11 - we were beaten by a capable and determined foe. Osama bin Laden, was a messianic figure with financial resources and a mass following. Through persistence and luck, he managed to slip through gaps in America’s homeland defenses. We, ourselves, had created these gaps for what seemed legitimate reasons - particularly “The Wall” between criminal investigators and intelligence officers. Nonetheless, we in the CIA are first to admit our failure to prevent the attack.

Can We Learn Lessons?

Yes, it is certainly possible. Here are 3 lessons that I would suggest. You will have more.

1. For better or worse, Intelligence matters. Knowledge is power. This is true in all aspects of life. Specifically, knowing something important before our foreign adversaries know it is important imparts a huge, national security advantage to America. We forget this at our peril.

2. At all costs, avoid unforced errors. Leadership is the key. The best aid in helping leaders avoid future unforced errors is to honestly face up to past errors. We have done this with the 9/11 attack. However, as a nation, we have never accepted and internalized the errors that led to the Kennedy Assassination and the Second Iraq War.

3. Be wary of capable and determined adversaries. They mean to harm America. Focus on them. Compete with them. Do everything we can to obtain Intelligence on their capabilities to harm us. Deter them vigorously if at all possible. Fight them if we must but only when they threaten us with a clear and present danger.